Implied Probability in Sports Betting


My name is Glen. I am the Odds Coach. Today I’m going to take you through one of the most important topics to understand as a sport bettor: Implied Probability.

Calculating implied probability is one of the most important steps you can take as a sports bettor to really understand the expected outcome of any particular match. It also helps illustrate the advantage of the sports book has over you and how helps you look for opportunities to lower that advantage. There’s two different ways for calculating implied probability with American odds. One for the negative side and one for the positive side.

i am going to work through a couple examples here that should help illustrate what implied probability means. We’ll start with a negative odd, -110 is the most common odd in sports betting. It’s the odd that you’re going to get in a spread bet, on either side of the bet in general. This math may look a little daunting but if you remember back to your 12th grade math, multiplying negative 1 by negative number essentially just makes positive. Really the simplification of this equation is negative 1 times -110 That’s giving us a positive 110 divided by, once again our 110 plus hundred, so 110 + 100 or 210. We have 110 / 200 and that’s going to give us 0.524 or if calculated itor percentage 52.4%.

That number should be familiar to you. If you’ve seen any of my other videos, this is the break-even point. If you’re a -110 general against spread bettor this is the winning percentage that you need to win at to break even on your sports bets. What we know from that 52.4% is that on both sides of a spread bed we have -110 odds.

So if we were to calculate it out for the other side of this bet, we once again get 52.4%. When you add those together and you get 104.8%. That number may seem a little weird to you because, how can you have more than 100% percent? That 4.8% is the sportsbooks advantage over you.What you always want to do with every one of your sports bets is get that advantage down as low as you possibly can, or look for bets where that number is as low as is possible. Let’s work through a complete moneyline example that will help us look at that a little more clearly.

We’ll start out with a bet on moneyline an actual money line set of odds +160 for the dog, -190 for the favorite. Let’s calculate a +160. The positive equation here much simpler. +160 + 100 all over a 100 is going to equal 100 over 260. That’s going to give you your 0.385 or 38.5% likelihood.

That makes sense; you’re picking a dog, $100 that is gonna win you $160. Odds are good that the outcome is going to be less than fifty percent. Let’s quickly do the negative odds. The -190 we use our equation up here, which is going to give us 190 over 190 + 100 which is 290. That’s going to give us 65.5% Add these two numbers together, because this is the likelyhood of your particular event. That’s going to give you a 104%.The important thing to take away from this particular topic is that -104 and -104.8 means that in this particular bet the sports book has less of an advantage over you.It’s not telling you which side to bet at

It is saying that betting on this outcome is most likely to give you the best possible return. A much better return than this- -110/-110 bet. That’s the real advantage of implied probability, it’s telling you the percentage of expected outcome but it’s also helping keep in check the advantage that the sports book has over you. If all this math seems a little bit complex, i invite you to go use the odds calculator on which really makes it as simple as just plugging in your your odds. i can’t stress enough, anytime you’re placing a bet, particularly a moneyline bet, go calculate out the implied probability and you’ll notice that your sportsbook’s advantage over you fluctuates quite a bit. I’ve seen them as low as 0.87% versus as high as 5 percent.

You always want to try to look for bets, when you’re handicapping, that have the lower of the the implied probability numbers because that’s where you stand to make the most profit. That’s where you stand to break even at a much lower rate than the 52.4%